Justin Wolfers is a professor of public policy and economics at the University of Michigan and a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. For more detail, read the Wolfers-Rothschild article, "Forecasting elections: voter intentions versus expectations." While most polling asks who respondents intend to vote for, Wolfers and co-author David Rothscshild (Microsoft Research) found, "over the last 60 years, poll questions that asked people which presidential candidate they expected to win have been a better guide to the outcome than questions asking people whom they planned to vote for." When asking for voters' beliefs on who will win the election, Rangel's lead widens, indicating that the primary might not actually be that close. Writing on Congressman Charles Rangel's reelection chances, Leonhardt (managing editor of The Upshot) uses Wolfers' research to argue that recent polls might show the primary challenge as closer than it actually is. Download the microdata behind this poll."An indirect path to accuracy in election polling," a May 21 article by David Leonhardt for the New York Times' recently launched blog, The Upshot, cites work by Ford School Professor Justin Wolfers. ![]() Read more about the methodology for this poll.That’s a measure of how much weighting we are doing to make our respondents resemble all voters. The design effect of this poll is 1.25.Some are delayed longer for technical reasons. Most responses shown here are delayed about 30 minutes. On average, Republicans lead by two points on the generic ballot which asks voters whether they’ll vote for the Democrat or Republican for Congress and have pulled.New York 11 Staten Island, southern Brooklyn Pennsylvania 10 South, central Pennsylvania New Jersey 11 Northern New Jersey suburbs. North Carolina 9 Charlotte suburbs, southern N.C. Minnesota 2 Minneapolis suburbs, southern Minn. By Nate Cohn NYT/Siena polls A snapshot of. 3, 2020 Analysis of the day in polls, from now until Election Day. Other districts where we’ve completed polls California 48 Orange County The Upshot on Today’s Polls By Nate Cohn Published Sept. Here are other common ways to weight a poll: In 2016, many pollsters didn’t weight by education and overestimated Hillary Clinton’s standing as a result. It’s strictly about turnout among the highly engaged, not about winning over Republican-leaning voters, but still suggests a slight edge heading into November. But as the Department of Justice concluded its report into Mr. Here, we’re weighting by age, party registration, gender, likelihood of voting, race, education and region, mainly using data from voting records files compiled by L2, a nonpartisan voter file vendor.īut weighting works only if you weight by the right categories and you know what the composition of the electorate will be. Clinton herself told Fareed Zakaria on CNN last fall that she would have won but for Jim Comey’s letter on October 28th. Pollsters compensate by giving more weight to respondents from under-represented groups. Some characteristics are missing or incorrect. Harder says he’s “of the valley, for the valley,” but after attending Stanford and Harvard and working as a technology investor, he may be a bit of a mismatch with the working-class parts of this district.īased on administrative records. He’s stressing job creation and expansion of health care. Harder, 32, is a political newcomer (and a newlywed) who beat a crowded primary field and has been endorsed by Barack Obama. Denham, 51, is an Air Force veteran who owns a plastics company and a small almond farm. Denham led an unsuccessful effort to pressure the House to vote on legislation to protect the young undocumented immigrants known as Dreamers. With his district greatly affected by immigration policy, Mr. Democrats have a slight registration edge, but have posted underwhelming results among Latinos in our polling so far. The district, a patchwork of conservative farming communities and liberal-leaning cities east of San Jose, is nearly 45 percent Latino. 45% favorable rating 45% unfavorable 10% don’t know He voted for the Republican tax bill and to repeal the Affordable Care Act. Ohio has voted to legalize the possession and sale of marijuana. ![]() Jeff Denham is the incumbent, elected in 2010. Daniel McCaffery, Democrat, wins election for Pennsylvania supreme court. 46% favorable rating 41% unfavorable 13% don’t know ![]() Josh Harder is a former venture capitalist who is now a business instructor at Modesto Junior College. The locations shown here are approximate.Įxplore the 2016 election in detail with this interactive map. To preserve privacy, exact addresses have been concealed.
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